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2023 - 2024 - 2025
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State Rank #137
Mater Dei Regional Rank #26
Jasper Sectional Rank #5
Most Likely Finish -
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season RatingPreseason Rating Dennis Bays Warrior Invitational Rick Weinheimer Invite Patriot Invitational South Knox Invite Pocket Athletic Conference Jasper Sectional Mater Dei Regional
Date 8/31 9/7 9/14 9/21 10/12 10/19 10/26
Team Rating 1,037 1,136 1,030 1,099 1,295 1,108 1,179 1,257
Team Adjusted Rating 1,136 1,030 1,099 1,182 991 1,034 1,064
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Dennis Bays Warrior Invitational Rick Weinheimer Invite Patriot Invitational South Knox Invite Pocket Athletic Conference Jasper Sectional Mater Dei Regional
432  Alden Marion 12 17:30 17:09 18:22 17:25 18:31 18:30 17:37 17:12 17:32
594  Nate Hollinden 9 17:51 17:37 17:29 17:56 18:47 17:18 18:00 17:52
1,180  Dewayne Rapier 10 18:43 18:07 19:09 18:31 18:35
Kasyn Ingle 9 19:26 19:34 19:41 19:30 20:34 19:00 19:07 19:54
Brody Ford 9 19:32 19:33 21:04 20:36 21:08 20:11 20:44 19:21
Ty Chestnut 9 19:39 19:39 19:51 19:18 18:50 19:50 19:58 21:11
Dayne McManaway 9 20:24 20:46 20:05 20:36 20:12 20:11 20:32
Jaidin Hicks 10 20:33 20:22 20:02 20:18 20:08 21:25 21:09
Evan Hagedorn 12 20:39 19:57 20:37 21:25 20:00 21:01 23:25 24:02




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State Finals 0.0%
Regionals 100% 24.2 592 0.8 2.2 6.2 12.3 27.0
Sectionals 100% 4.9 131 10.7 85.9 3.4



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alden Marion 0.1% 192.5 0.1% 0.1%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alden Marion 100% 69.2 100.0%
Nate Hollinden 100% 91.0 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alden Marion 7.2 0.1 1.3 7.5 18.4 16.9 23.9 14.9 9.1 4.4 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Nate Hollinden 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.6 2.9 8.7 12.7 15.9 16.2 13.7 11.1 8.0 4.5 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0